Reading the World

5/13/2008

McCain’s Energy Policy

Filed under: — Kairos @ 10:52 am

Cap and trade is far more dangerous than a carbon tax. A tax allows both price and quantity to adjust. Cap and trade fixes the quantity and makes price changes very large and unpredictable.

McCain, the Cap-and-Trader by Larry Kudlow

4/29/2008

No Respect for Hilary

Filed under: — Kairos @ 1:26 pm

GENERALLY I DON’T QUOTE THE VAST RIGHT WING CONSPIRACY, BUT HERE IT GOES ON THIS PIECE FROM THE NEW YORK TIMES AND BILLLY CRYSTAL.

FIRST, A LITTLE HISTORY…IN 1972 THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY EMBRACED THE ONE MAN ONE VOTE RULE. THIS WAS A LURCH TO THE LEFT IN REACTION TO NIXON’S VASTLY UNPOPULAR PRESIDENCY. THERE WAS AN UNPOPULAR WAR, A FAILING ECONOMY AND THE START OF WAGE AND PRICE CONTROLS. ALL OF THIS WAS TO GET MUCH WORSE SOON.

THIS POPULIST PARTY NOMINATED GEORGE MCGOVERN. HE WAS SEEN AS THE ONE WHO WOULD SAVE THE COUNTRY, SAVE THE ECONOMY, AND RESTORE THE MIDDLE CLASS. HE WOULD GIVE EVERY AMERICAN 1000 DOLLARS, AND THAT WAS REAL MONEY BACK THEN. BUT THE PARTY, THE MEDIA AND THE PROFESSIONALS WERE NOT LISTING TO THE COUNTRY. INSTEAD, THEY WERE LISTENING ONLY TO THEIR OWN SOCIALISTIC DREAMS OF A UTOPIA WITHOUT DIVISIONS OF RACE OR CLASS - A UTOPIA WHERE MARKET FORCES DIDN’T MATTER.

IRONICALLY IT WAS NIXON WHO IGNORED MARKET FORCES AND COLLAPSED BOTH THE DOLLAR AND THE WORLD ECONOMY. ISN’T GOOD TO FOOL MOTHER NATURE OR MARKET FORCES, WHICH ARE ONE AND THE SAME, BUT I DIGRESS.

IN THE ELECTION THAT FOLLOWED, SOCIALISM WAS REJECTED AS MCGOVERN CARRIED ONLY ONE STATE, MASSACHUSETTS. HE RECEIVED ONLY 17 ELECTORAL VOTES WHILE NIXON GOT ALL THE REST.

SO NOW WE HAVE IT AGAIN, A TEST BETWEEN MARKET FORCES AND IDEAL SOCIALISM. DEMOCRATS OFFER A DREAMY CALL FOR CHANGE AND HOPE. I MYSELF PREFER ACTIONS TO “HOPE”.

Russell

Hilary Gets No Respect, from New York Times

3/7/2008

McGovern again?

Filed under: — Kairos @ 1:00 pm

Art Laffer taught us this. Without the truck, the truck driver has no job. And without the driver, the truck has no value. This is the double ellipse. What the Democrats do not know is that the American voter is well aware of these facts. This is why class warfare does not work in America. William Jennings Bryant proved it. More recently, John Edwards reproved it. In 1976 George McGoven proved it. He ran against a very unpopular president Nixon. He ran against a very unpopular war. His centerpeice was a $1,000 “Demogrant” to every family. The voters saw this could not work, and awarded him 17 electoral votes from MA and DC only. This is my hope for the 2008 election. - Russell

Clinton, Obama Put Middle Class On The Wrong Path To Prosperity By RAFAEL RESENDES AND JOHN TAMNY | Posted Thursday, March 06, 2008 4:20 PM PT.

“A” Bottom versus “THE” Bottom

Filed under: — Kairos @ 12:43 pm

We are reaching short term oversold readings on many market indicators. I think we are close to “A” bottom, but maybe not “THE” bottom.

The news flow (every headline about margin calls and the worsening credit crisis) as well as sentiment/psychology internals (put call ratios/insider buying, etc.) all point to short term fear and panic. The long term valuation story remains intact as well. According to a Laffer Associates model, the S&P 500 is almost 100% undervalued when compared to capitalized economic profits (NIPA). This all points to “A” bottom.

However for it to be “THE” bottom we need policy change. - Fed must get fed funds rate down to short term Tbill rate - Fed must produce enough liquidity to stop housing slide - Treasury and White house should guarantee Fannie and Freddie

These actions can fix the financial markets. We will still uncertainty about November’s policy change hanging over the markets. The threat of anti growth policies from the next administration will keep markets in a trading range until we can assess what 2009 and beyond will look like policy-wise. However, if the Fed does the right thing now, that trading range prior to the election could have an upward bias. If the Fed fails to act soon, markets will trend even lower, deepening whatever flavor of recession we are currently in.

The big questions for investors who want to build long term wealth going forward are where to place bets once the future policy direction become clear. We are searching for opportunities. - Jim

Household Net Worth

Filed under: — Kairos @ 12:22 pm

David Malpass, Chief Economist at Bear Stearns, has a great take on the recent household wealth figures released by the government. We agree with him. The normal thinking is wrong. The household savings rate is high, not low. Household new worth, both with and without housing, is high and rising. Corporate profits are not falling. There is, as of now, no major sign of recession. Stocks trade like we are near a major bottom. Fear is very high. - Russell

3/5/2008

Oil

Filed under: — Kairos @ 10:32 am

Oil recently hit a new high. Markets were shaken on Monday as the inflation adjusted price of oil eclipsed the old 1980 high. This is somehow viewed in the press as a negative. We see it the opposite way. It took 28 years for oil to make a new high. That is an annual rate or return near 2% - a very poor investment.

Weak Markets

Filed under: — Kairos @ 10:24 am

What has been causing the weak stock market and dollar? What is causing oil and gold to spike to new highs? It is not housing. It is political. It is the threat of a possible end to Hillary’s campaign. Not that she is any friend to prosperity, free trade or growth. But she is less hostile to saving, investment and free markets than Obama.

2/28/2008

Greenspan or Bernanke?

Filed under: — Kairos @ 2:59 pm

Listening to Bernanke’s clarity while addressing Congress makes me long for the confusion of a Greenspan testimony. The bottom line is that we can understand Ben, and he is clueless. He does not understand that losses will pile up as long as house prices decline. He is surprised that rate cuts caused oil and commodity prices to spike to new highs. He is trapped in a Keynsian, Phillips curve model. He is unaware of what really causes inflation - too much money. He also seems unaware of how markets work.

Greenspan was not great. He was an average chairman who improved a lot when Wayne Angel served and guided him to use the gold price as a policy indicator. But Greenspan seems to be far better than Bernanke. At least Greenspan was able to confuse Congress in a way that sounded brilliant and like he knew what he was doing. Greenspan could produce trust. When Bernanke talks I feel lilke shorting the dollar.

Russell

2/15/2008

More Election Thoughs

Filed under: — Kairos @ 3:05 pm

I am disturbed by this story even though I have been expecting it.

“Obama’sLead in Delegates Shifts Focus of Campaign By ADAM NEGAUNEE Hillary Rodham Clinton’s advisers made it clear that they were prepared to take a number of potentially incendiary steps to build up her delegate count.”

For the boomers, this would be seen as yet another betrayal. For the Gen X’ers who came out for Obama, this betrayal would mean they stay home in November and fall back into political resignation. - Russell

2/8/2008

Election Thoughts

Filed under: — Kairos @ 6:04 pm

I predict that the election will come down to Obama versus McCain. Integrity is the theme of this election. Both Obama and McCain are well respected.

The more Hillary attacks Obama, the better chance he has to win. He challenges all the African American stereotypes which makes him appealing to white voters. Consider this: Obama is a young African American male without any dirt. If there was anything to find, Hillary would have found and exposed it already. He’s a squeaky clean, charismatic, hard-working candidate. His attendance record is impeccable.

McCain is a true patriot. As A POW, he is the only candidate qualified to speak about war. His “straight talk” campaign builds on the trust he’s already earned.

There are so many, especially in my generation, independents. These independents will entertain either of these candidates based on the issues. This is the first time that my liberal, Vegan assistant and I are entertaining the same candidate: McCain. His integrity and experience appeal to us both.

This is not to say that McCain has my vote yet. With Obama quoting Reagan, I may consider him. As Art Laffer said, if Obama adopts Reagan’s economic policies “I’d vote for him.” Obama is a more positive, appealing young candidate who could easily get my vote if he goes “supplyside.” He’s an engaging beacon of hope. -Natalia Davis

11/19/2007

Weak Dollar

Filed under: — Russell Redenbaugh @ 12:34 pm

A WEAK CURRENCY IS NOT GOOD FOR INCOME, OUTPUT AND EMPLOYMENT. THE ISSUE WITH ANY CURRENCY IS “TRUST.” THE DOLLAR IS A PROMISE OF OUR GOVERNMENT, THE PROMISE OF STABLE VALUE. THIS PROMISE WAS BROKEN IN A SHATTERING WAY IN 1971 WHEN NIXON TRICKED WORLD MARKETS AND ALL AMERICANS BY UNCOUPLING THE DOLLAR AND IT’S LINK TO GOLD. THE RESULTS WERE DISASTROUS AND PRODUCED THE ECONOMIC CONDITIONS THAT RESULTED IN AN ENTIRE GENERATION OF AMERICANS BELIEVING IN SCARCITY. FROM THE TIME GEN X WAS BORNE IN 1965 UNTIL THEY STARTED COLLEGE ABOUT 18 YEARS LATER THE DOW JONES WENT FROM 1000 TO 676. THIS IS BEFORE INFLATION. NO WONDER THE MOTTO FOR GEN X IS “IN US WE TRUST.” THIS MISTAKE NOW IS NOT NEARLY AS SERIOUS AS THE NIXON TRICK. BUT IT NEEDS CORRECTING. HOW CAN ANY OF US TRUST OUR GOVERNMENT IF WE CAN NOT TRUST THE CURRENCY. WATCH FOR A CHANGE IN DOLLAR POLICY FROM THIS ADMINISTRATION OR THE NEXT. THERE ARE VOTES IN PROMISING A STRONG DOLLAR AND THE TAX POLICIES THAT BRING THAT ABOUT.

10/31/2007

Rangel Tax Reform

Filed under: — Russell Redenbaugh @ 10:19 am

We can have prosperity and uneven outcomes. Or we can have “fairness” with far less prosperity. We can not have both. Low marginal tax rates cause the “rich” to pay a larger share of taxes paid. Which do we want? Distributive justice or procedural justice?

Inconvenient Tax Truths by Pete DuPont

Greenspan Book

Filed under: — Russell Redenbaugh @ 9:19 am

THIS WAS AN EXTREMELY READABLE AND ENJOYABLE BOOK. MOSTLY BECAUSE IT WAS A REVIEW OF THE ECONOMIC AND STOCK MARKET HISTORY THAT I LIVED THROUGH AND LEARNED OVER THESE PAST 40 YEARS. I VERY MUCH AGREE WITH REVIEWERS CRITICISMS OF “THE CHAIRMAN” AS A CENTRAL BANKER. HE WAS, AND STILL REMAINS, TRAPPED IN THE PHILLIPS CURVE BELIEF THAT GROWTH CAUSES INFLATION. HE CONSTRAINed GROWTH IN THE MONETARY BASE FOR MANY YEARS BELIEVING THAT THE U.S. ECONOMY COULD NOT POSSIBLY GROW FASTER THAN 2%. THIS LEAD TO PERIODIC CREDIT CRISES AND DEFLATIONS. HE IS NOT GENEROUS IN SHARING CREDIT, AND RARELY EVEN MENTIONS ANY OF THE OTHER FED GOVERNORS BY NAME. SOME OF THE BEST POLICY WAS WHEN WAYNE ANGEL WAS ON THE BOARD AND THE FED DID PRICE LEVEL TARGETING. GREENSPAN BELIEVES IN THE MASTER CENTRAL BANKER, THE MAESTRO, THE SMARTEST OF THE SMART. I LEARNED FROM WAYNE ANGEL THAT THE FED SHOULD TARGET THE PRICE LEVEL, NOT STOCKS OR HOUSE PRICES.

Fed cuts

Filed under: — Russell Redenbaugh @ 7:38 am

The following commentary, by Mike Farrell, CEO of Annaly Capital Management, explains why we can not know the future and why the Fed must keep cutting rates.

Seduced by a Super Model

Socialized Medicine

Filed under: — Russell Redenbaugh @ 7:30 am

Socialized medicine, once intended to spread the risks, now seeks to spread the costs of risky behaviors.

Cherry Garcia and the End of Socialized Medicine by Peter Huber

10/29/2007

The Age of Mass Innovation

Filed under: — Russell Redenbaugh @ 6:41 am

In the past, again and again, we have come back from the brink. World War II. The 1970’s threat from Japanese business. 9/11. But please, could we plan ahead a little better? The rest of the world is cutting marginal tax rates and lowering regulation. We are trying to increase both. If we are not careful we could become the UK of the 20th century.

The Age of Mass Innovation from the Economist.com

10/24/2007

Free Markets

Filed under: — Russell Redenbaugh @ 12:54 pm

I do not want to take sides on the “right” tax rate for carried interest. I do however call attention to the amazing results of the post 1980 U.S. economy and financial markets. I strongly support the idea of free markets. It is far better to let the market make these decisions about the “right” price, “right ” interest rate, and “right” rate of return. When the market produces outcomes that I do not like, even I am tempted to think that wise men should help make these decisions. The press would make one think that the U.S. economy is falling apart. Deficits in trade, current account, federal budget, and unemplyment rate are all terrible. Yet when compared to Europe we grow, work, save an invest. Income gaps do widen, but then they always do when growth happens. Rest assured, we are doing remarkably well.

Let the Good Times Roll by John L. Chapman

A Vital Engine of Economic Growth by John L. Chapman

10/22/2007

No Top Yet

Filed under: — Russell Redenbaugh @ 8:26 pm

THERE IS TOO MUCH MONEY CHASING TO FEW STOCKS AND TOO MUCH STUFF. PLUS, THE SUPPLY OF STOCKS CAN INCREASE FASTER THAN THE SUPPLY OF STUFF. INTERESTINGLY, THE SUPPLY OF STOCKS DIMINSHED NOT INCREASED. NO TOP YET.

Blinded by the Derivatives Boom by Doug Kass

5/17/2007

Why Republicans can win in 08

Filed under: — Russell Redenbaugh @ 8:02 am

WELL, NOW I HAVE A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF BERNARD LEWIS’ OPTIMISM ABOUT IRAQ. I ALSO SEE THAT THE DEMOCRATS ARE PLAYING A “LOSING HAND” AS THE INTERESTS OF IRAN AND THE U.S. COME INTO ALIGNMENT. THINGS MAY GO WELL IN IRAQ, LEAVING THE DEMOCRATS WITH NOTHING TO CAMPAIGN ON EXCEPT CLASS WARFARE. IF THINGS GO BADLY IN IRAQ, WE WILL PULL OUT AND THE DEMOCRATS AGAIN WILL HAVE NOTHING TO RUN ON BUT CLASS WARFARE. WILLIAM JENNINGS BRYAN PROVED YOU CANNOT GET ELECTED AS A POPULIST. EVEN HANDSOME JOHN CAN’T WIN THIS ONE. AT THE SAME TIME, ECONOMIC NEWS IS GETTING BETTER AND BETTER. THE FEDERAL BUDGET DEFICIT IS VANISHING INTO THIN AIR, SOON UNDER 1% OF GDP. THERE MAY BE NO NEED FOR A TAX HIKE. PERHAPS TAX CUTS? OR A FLATTER, FAIRER TAX? DROPPING THE INCOME TAX FOR MOST AMERICANS? DEMOCRATS HAVE NOTHING TO RUN ON, AND REMEMBER, GEORGE BUSH IS NOT RUNNING.

Following from Stratfor.com May 16, 2007 23 55 GMT

By George Friedman and Reva Bhalla

At long last, the United States and Iran announced May 13 that they will engage in direct public bilateral talks over Iraq. From Washington, it was the office of Vice President Dick Cheney and the National Security Council that broke the news. From Tehran, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad confirmed that the two sides will meet in Baghdad in a few weeks, most likely at the ambassadorial level. That makes these talks as officially sanctioned as they can be.

Already there have been two brief public meetings – albeit on the sidelines of two international conferences – between senior officials from the Iranian Foreign Ministry and the U.S. State Department in March in Baghdad and in May in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt. The upcoming meeting in Baghdad, however, will be the first official bilateral meeting. After months of intense back-channel discussions, both sides have made a critical decision to bring their private negotiations into the public sphere, which means Tehran and Washington must have reached some consensus on the general framework of the negotiations on how to stabilize Iraq. (more…)

5/11/2007

Filed under: — Russell Redenbaugh @ 10:28 am

This may be why the markets are so strong. If the war goesbadly we will get out. If the war goes well we will get out. Then, what do the dems have to run on? Taxes?? - Never.

following by Larry Kudlow from Kudlow’s Money Politic$ Democrats Dooming Themselves to Defeat (My latest syndicated column.)

The Democratic Party may be convincing itself that it’s riding high in the polls toward a White House victory in next year’s election. But you know what? On two key themes – taxes and national security – the Democrats may be dooming themselves to defeat.

Watching the two presidential debates, one can’t help but notice the stark differences between each party’s approach to these core issues. And it’s hard to see how the general electorate is going to buy what the Democrats are selling.

To a person, each Democratic presidential candidate wants to undermine the global war against jihadist terrorism – wherever it may be, and especially in Iraq. The Democrats see a civil war in Iraq, where the Republicans view a growing al-Qaida threat. And while Republicans talk about significantly increasing the defense budget and expanding American force levels for all the armed services, the Democrats are hoping for some sort of Iraqi peace dividend upon immediate withdrawal – one that can be re-channeled into higher domestic social spending. (more…)

5/7/2007

U.S. Politics

Filed under: — Russell Redenbaugh @ 5:54 pm

The two political parties could not be more different in the way they see America, the role of government, the conduct of foreign policy, and the nature of threats to our country. All of these differences became clear watching both parties debate last week. There truly are two Americas. We are living in a most interesing politcial and historic moment.

5/4/2007

Filed under: — Russell Redenbaugh @ 12:30 pm

Facts are such stubborn things. This is a great piece refuting the current global warming claims by Al Gore. The author, Mellie Gilder, is the third scholar in a family of scholars. The fruit doesn’t fall far from the tree.

Good News, Mr. Gore, the Apocalypse has been postponed, by Mary Ellen Gilder

The Gospel according to Gore

You may have missed it, but April 22nd was National Day of Hope, Prayer and Reflection about Global Warming – presumably not by the edict of the current administration. In the political world Bush is becoming more and more isolated in his stance on this subject. Other public figures are acquiescing one by one. Even Arnold Schwarzenegger, who once seemed likely to be an unmovable bastion of big-business conservatism, has been converted and is on the cover of Newsweek, twirling a fragile and endangered world on his finger and announcing draconian measures to limit carbon emissions in California. He’s a believer.

Global warming has galvanized the developed world. Liberals sound the warning, Conservatives respond with gradually mounting enthusiasm. Clergy fall to their knees in prayer and repentance. Atheists find new purpose and a moral lodestone. Americans slap concerned bumper stickers on their SUVs and flock to “An Inconvenient Truth”. Hollywood swoons and bestows on Gore’s slideshow two Academy Awards. The scientific community churns out technical paper after paper in the journals reporting the mounting evidence.

Or do they? (more…)

5/3/2007

Filed under: — Russell Redenbaugh @ 12:07 pm

Old Europe is becoming more than a large outdoor museum maintained for our benefit. It is about to become a source of growth and prosperity. Any change that is real is generaitonal, as the carriers of the “old discourse” die off and are replaced with the next generation. This new generation carries different world views, habits and concerns.

Following from Stratfor.com

By Peter Zeihan

In the 19 years since the Berlin Wall was pulled down, the post-Cold War chronicle of the former Soviet empire has become the stuff of history. But the winds of change that blew over governments from Prague to Dushanbe also have swept west of the former Iron Curtain. In 2007, the last of the post-Cold War generation of Western European leaders will move on, heralding a fundamentally new era for all of Europe.

Against a backdrop of record turnout, the French electorate April 22 voted for a break with the past. Such a vote was not difficult to cast, as none of the 12 candidates could be accurately described as a preacher of continuity.

Continuity is something that has been hard to find in Europe of late. The Big Three European powers – France, Germany and the United Kingdom – are all experiencing not only leadership transitions, but regime shifts that are altering their own political systems and those of Europe and Eurasia as a whole. These changes in turn are unplugging the historical deep freeze that has retarded events in Europe and the former Soviet world. Change, fast and furious, is returning to Europe. (more…)

Islam and the West

Filed under: — Russell Redenbaugh @ 8:41 am

Last night I attended a program by Professor Bernard Lewis, one of the world’s foremost experts on the Middle East and author of over twenty book on Islam and the West. Some of his more recent books include, What Went Wrong?: The Clash Between Islam and Modernity in the Middle East (2002), The Crisis of Islam: Holy War and Unholy Terror (2003) , and From Babel to Dragomans: Interpreting the Middle East (2004). His talk was to discuss how Europe should deal with its growing Muslim population and balance its desire for a tolerant society with strict guidelines for Muslim assimilation.

Below is my take from his talk.

Main points:

- Islam and Christianity are permanently conflicting discourses. Both have “universal and exclusive” claims to salvation, while Jews and Hindus believe all religions can get you to heaven.

- There are 3 great conquests of Islam against Christianity.

  1. North Africa, Syria, Iraq, Iran etc. were all first Christian. The first push of Islam was to take over all of these Mediterranean Christian states. They moved on into Spain, Italy and France and would have overtaken all of Europe had they not been held back by the crusades.
  2. The Turk tartar expansion pushed to Vienna and Afghanistan into what is now Pakistan and much of India. All the “stans” of old USSR. Southern Europe was recaptured
  3. This is the current phase of global conquest. Bin Laden believes that the West did not defeat the USSR. It was not Reagan and Thatcher but instead it was the Mujajadeen and Islamic afghans.

- Islam has been hijacked by two radical, fanatical groups: one Sunni and one shia. These two groups are currently working together, but will fight each other after the “Christian”, infidel, non believers are defeated. These two groups are located in Saudi Arabia and Iran. The government in Iran is totally religious fanatic. They believe this is “ final days” - a great battle between good and evil mattering not how many are killed on each side because“god will know his own.” A nuclear Iran is a terrible thing to contemplate. Bin laden totally surprised by the bush invasion in to afghan and Iraq. Al Qaeda understood that there was a new government in 2000 but thought that didn’t matter after years of us not response to provocations for more than a decade Actions:

We should accept some reduction in our civil liberties, like the adoption of a national identity card. When asked what advice he would give to President Bush, Lewis said, “Stand fast. It is never a good move to say if we don’t defeat you by Tuesday we will leave.”

4/30/2007

Prime minister orders election in Ireland for May 24

Filed under: — Russell Redenbaugh @ 11:54 am

Prosperity often brings forgetfullness as to the causes of that prosperity.

Following by By Eamon Quinn, International Herald Tribune

Bertie Ahern of Ireland, seeking a third successive election victory for his centrist Fianna Fail party, which has governed in a coalition government since 1997, on Sunday called a general election for May 24. He said his re-election campaign would focus on securing economic prosperity and solidifying the peace agreement in Northern Ireland.

But opinion polls suggest that, despite an economic boom, the coalition will lose its majority in the 166-seat Parliament. A closely fought battle is expected between Ahern and the main opposition party, Fine Gael, led by Enda Kenny, over who is most able to improve creaking public services for the Irish, including crowded hospitals and roads, and to fill basic needs, including that for safe drinking water. (more…)

4/27/2007

Filed under: — Russell Redenbaugh @ 9:02 am

The model works. Not every minute, but very, very well.

“Supply-Siders Saw It Coming…” by Larry Kudlow’s

Here’s Jerry Bowyer’s excellent take on Dow 13,000 and the success of the supply-side over at NRO…

Question: What do Neil Cavuto and most of the folks over at Fox News; Steve Forbes, Rich Karlgaard, and much of the intellectual inventory over at Forbes magazine; Larry Kudlow, Art Laffer, Don Luskin, Brian Wesbury, and most of the other money types who pop up around 5 p.m. EST each weekday on CNBC; the crowd over at the Wall Street Journal editorial page; and the full complement of writers right here on NRO Financial have in common? (more…)

4/20/2007

Fred Thompson is a Supply Sider

Filed under: — Russell Redenbaugh @ 10:54 am

Case Closed Tax cuts mean growth.

BY FRED THOMPSON , Wall Street Journal Saturday, April 14, 2007 12:01 a.m. EDT

It’s that time again, and I was thinking of the old joke about paying your taxes with a smile. The punch line is that the IRS doesn’t accept smiles. They want your money.

So it’s not that funny, but there is reason to smile this tax season. The results of the experiment that began when Congress passed a series of tax-rate cuts in 2001 and 2003 are in. Supporters of those cuts said they would stimulate the economy. Opponents predicted ever-increasing budget deficits and national bankruptcy unless tax rates were increased, especially on the wealthy. (more…)

4/19/2007

Filed under: — Russell Redenbaugh @ 10:44 pm

Brian is both right and wrong. He is right about the economics of the two periods but wrong about the mood. Clinton produced confidence. No one is confident in Bush’s leadership. Both of these presidents have one thing in common; they got the entire country to talk about them. Clinton over Monica. Bush over the war.

By BRIAN S. WESBURY

The Misery Index was first employed by Jimmy Carter in 1976 to unseat President Gerald Ford. That year, the index, which is calculated by adding the unemployment rate to the inflation rate, averaged 13.2%. Four years later it had climbed to 18.2%, and Ronald Reagan used it to unseat Mr. Carter. Today the Misery Index isn’t revealing much misery. As of February 2007, it was only 6.8% (4.5% unemployment plus a 2.3% 12-month increase in the PCE deflator) – a level bettered in only four years since 1967, and all those years were in the so-called “bubble economy” of the late 1990s. (more…)

Filed under: — Russell Redenbaugh @ 10:10 pm

This China report is good but misses one key issue - carbon caps. The U.S, congress will insist on these, and China will never accept. The entire trade issue will shift to the eco field.

following from Stratfor.com Global Market Brief: China, U.S. – The Changing Trade Dynamic

Stratfor

The United States and China have been engaged in a dance over trade for some time now. One of Washington’s periodic moves has consisted of advocating a symbolic anti-China gesture aimed at appeasing anti-China factions in the United States.

Until now, these threats have wound up costing China relatively little. And a trade war over intellectually property rights or glossy paper used by magazines is not about to wreck the U.S.-Chinese relationship. Even so, the dynamic behind the trans-Pacific dance has begun shifting.

The latest trade flare-up between the United States and China is related to the next Strategic Economic Dialogue summit in Washington, where U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Chinese Vice Premier Wu Yi will meet for talks May 23-24. It also is related to the upcoming expiration of U.S. President George W. Bush’s trade authority, the renewal of which Congress is currently considering. Both deadlines have ramped up pressure on the White House (and hence on U.S. Trade Representative Susan Schwab) to act more aggressively against China’s so-called economic misdemeanors. (more…)

3/28/2007

Taxes

Filed under: — Russell Redenbaugh @ 9:23 am

The tax burden confusion happens because we interchange nominal tax rates with the share of taxes paid. The left measures “tax burden” based on rates. This writer bases it on share of total taxes paid, and this is the better way. A 100 per cent bracket would clearly raise no revenue, nor would a 0 per cent tax bracket. What bothers some is the growing gap between the highly successful and the rest of us. In America we respect the “stars.” We want to be at the top of our game, and that brings out ide rewards. Only until someone takes our place does there remain great downward mobility.

following from INVESTOR’S BUSINESS DAILY Posted 3/26/2007

Fiscal Policy: It’s a matter of faith for some that tax cuts and government spending help the rich, while leaving crumbs for the poor. But as with most conventional wisdom, nothing could be further from the truth.

Typical is this quote from the online journal Democracy: ‘Call it phony universalism, Robin Hood in reverse, or socialism for the rich — whatever the name, the U.S. government is effectively targeting tax subsidies and legal protections at the more advantaged members of American society.’

Now here’s the reality: The rich are being taxed at ever-higher levels, while more workers at the bottom of the income ladder are paying no taxes at all. As for spending, resources flowing to those at the bottom far outstrip those flowing to those at the top. (more…)

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